Bitcoin showed little immediate reaction to the Federal Reserve’s rate increase before rising, while analysts pointed to its 2022 post-hike rally and subsequent decline as a cautionary precedent.
Bitcoin barely moves after the Fed hike
The Federal Reserve’s rate-hike vote was unanimous. Bitcoin had little immediate reaction to the announcement, holding around $76,000 before and after it and trading at $76,300 in one reported snapshot.
The post-decision move turned positive, but remained volatile
Bitcoin later traded at $76,621 and was reported up 0.88% over 24 hours. That followed an earlier period in which it traded at $76,300 after the news and declined nearly 3% over 24 hours, underscoring the market’s volatility rather than establishing a settled trend.
Why 2022 is the key comparison
The precedent analysts are watching began with Bitcoin already about 40% below its peak when the Fed first raised rates in March 2022. Bitcoin then rallied roughly 18% over the following 12 days before subsequently falling around 50%. Today, it sits about 40% below its October high of $126,000.
The policy backdrop still carries risks
Core inflation has eased to 2.4%, but annual headline inflation has remained above 2% for more than five years. Markets are pricing in another 75 basis points of tightening over the next six months. Bitcoin traded below $76,000 into the decision, and chart analysts characterized its range breakdown as a bearish signal.
Positioning offers mixed signals
Onchain support for Bitcoin thickened at $68,000, while spot markets recorded about $15.5 million in net buying. Against that, perpetual futures showed approximately $82 million in net selling over the preceding hour. Bitcoin was nevertheless reported up 1.35% over 24 hours, leaving the next direction unsettled.