Bitcoin showed little immediate reaction after the unanimous rate-hike vote, while market data and historical comparisons point to competing signals for its next move.
Bitcoin barely moves after the Fed decision
The Federal Reserve’s rate-hike vote was unanimous, but bitcoin had little immediate reaction to the announcement. The cryptocurrency held near $76,000 before and after the decision.
Derivatives selling and liquidations add pressure
Bitcoin saw approximately $82 million in net selling through perpetual futures over the past hour, alongside around $15.5 million in net spot buying. The market also recorded $85 million in bitcoin liquidations, while bitcoin reached a price just above $76,400.
Onchain flows offer a mixed picture
Onchain support for bitcoin thickened at $68,000. At the same time, around 2,170 bitcoin moved onto exchanges, followed by a withdrawal of 1,260 bitcoin. Bitcoin increased 1.35% over 24 hours, adding to the mixed signals around demand and potential selling pressure.
The 2022 comparison cuts both ways
Bitcoin peaked around $69,000 in November 2021 and was down roughly 40% when the Fed first raised rates in March 2022. It then rallied roughly 18% over the following 12 days, but subsequently fell around 50%. Bitcoin now sits around 40% below its October high.
Policy expectations remain a key test
Core inflation has eased to 2.4%, while annual headline inflation has remained above 2% for more than five years. Markets are pricing in a further 75 basis points of tightening over the next six months, although the expected 25-basis-point increase is largely priced in.
Bitcoin’s market relationships are unsettled
Bitcoin’s short-window correlation with the Dollar Index is nearly zero, while its correlations with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and gold are 0.43, 0.30 and 0.28, respectively. Those readings offer no single straightforward guide to bitcoin’s next move.