Bitcoin recovered toward $78,000 after the Federal Reserve’s unanimous rate-hike decision, while trading data and the 2022 market pattern leave the durability of the rebound uncertain.
Bitcoin held near $76,000 before and after the Federal Reserve’s unanimous rate-hike decision, showing little immediate reaction. It later recovered from $75,972 overnight to just below $78,000 and rose above $78,000 during the European morning.
The rebound has been volatile. Bitcoin was up 0.88% over 24 hours and 2.1% since midnight UTC in separate market snapshots, after gaining 6% on Friday; another point in the timeline had it down nearly 3% over 24 hours.
Derivatives activity added to the uncertainty. Bitcoin saw approximately $82 million in net selling through perpetual futures over the past hour, even as net spot buying reached around $15.5 million. Cross-crypto short liquidations were near $250 million over four hours, while open interest in bitcoin futures increased to 680,000 BTC.
The expected 25-basis-point increase was largely priced in, helping explain why the decision did not produce a simple risk-off move. Bitcoin’s short-window correlation with the Dollar Index was described as nearly zero, while its reported correlations were 0.43 with the S&P 500 and 0.30 with the Nasdaq.
The 2022 comparison offers both a precedent for a rally and a warning about its durability. Bitcoin was down roughly 40% from its peak when the Fed first raised rates in March 2022, then rallied roughly 18% over the following 12 days before subsequently falling around 50%. Core inflation has since eased to 2.4%.
The next test is whether the rally can hold. Bitcoin is trading at about $78,000, up roughly 32% for the quarter, but remains about 40% below its October record high of $126,000. Market levels identified to watch include support at $70,000 and in the $62,000–$65,000 range; bitcoin is down 1.5% this month.